Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Again mostly Sunny with Calm to Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday,  September 30, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light and mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 3 feet. This morning's satellite images show the center of a tropical wave is west of us. .
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and development is not expected. The low should move toward the north and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
2. A tropical wave will enter the tropical N Atlantic waters W of 55W on Wednesday...the Eastern Caribbean Thursday...the central Caribbean Friday...and the Western Caribbean Saturday night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere...except for a fresh to strong breeze in the Gulf of Honduras Wednesday night through Friday night.
3. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Friday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to S Texas Friday night and from SW Florida to NE Mexico Saturday night.
4. The UKMET model is predicting development of a tropical wave on Sunday in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands from a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Saturday morning. The GFS and European models give some lukewarm support to this idea. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic will bring high wind shear to the region early next week, making developing difficult.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

high tide 12:15 am LT               Moon Rise – 11:04 am LT
low tide 7:24 am LT                   Moon Set –10:45 pm LT
high tide 3:01 pm LT                  Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
low tide 8:39 pm LT                   Sunset – 5:38 pm LT


Monday, September 29, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Light Winds and Moderate Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday,  September 29, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light and mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 3 feet. This morning's satellite images show a tropical wave is about 300 miles east of us. It will pass over us tonight and Tuesday. Expect increasing cloudiness with a chance of rain with this system.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer




The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a little better organized over the past several hours, upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development while the low moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system will produce locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave will move through the W Caribbean through Monday night before moving W of the area. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.

 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 5:57 am LT                      Moon Rise – 10:09 am LT
high tide 1:56 pm LT                     Moon Set –9:53 pm LT
low tide 7:23 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
high tide 12:15 am LT                   Sunset – 5:39 pm LT